Tornado Watch 686

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLitchfield County is under Tornado Watch today until 6pm, issued from the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK.  The following text are from the Storm Prediction Center:

The probabilities of severe weather:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

The actual text of the watch:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN CONNECTICUT
          WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
          NEW JERSEY
          SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
          EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
   PM EDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC
   CITY NEW JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
   INCREASING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL NY INTO EASTERN PA.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
    INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO
   SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG AND THE RISK EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE CONFIRMED
   THAT RISK.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
   
   
   ...HART